The 2024 holiday season concluded with robust consumer spending, reflecting a strong U.S. economy. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), core retail sales during November and December reached a record $994.1 billion, marking a 4% increase over 2023 and surpassing NRF’s projected growth of 2.5% to 3.5%.
On average, consumers spent $902 per person on gifts, food, decorations, and other holiday-related items, setting a new record and exceeding the previous high of $886 in 2019. This surge was driven by a combination of lower inflation rates compared to 2023, extended promotion windows, and a resurgence in both online and in-person shopping. Retailers began offering holiday deals as early as October, encouraging consumers to shop sooner and spread out their spending.
Online sales experienced significant growth, increasing by 8.6% to $296.7 billion, aligning with NRF’s forecast of 8% to 9% growth. This trend underscores the continued consumer preference for the convenience of online shopping, even as many returned to brick-and-mortar stores.
The holiday shopping period saw heightened activity during key events. An estimated 197 million consumers shopped over the Thanksgiving weekend, and 157.2 million were expected to make purchases on Super Saturday, the last Saturday before Christmas. However, the longer promotional period meant spending was more evenly distributed throughout the season, reducing the reliance on these traditional peak shopping days.
SONAR data revealed a tightening in the domestic freight market during the holiday season. On December 22nd, national tender rejection rates—the percentage of shipments rejected by carriers—hit their highest point of the year at just over 10%. This indicated reduced carrier capacity and a surge in spot market activity.
Additionally, dry van spot rates saw significant growth, with rates increasing by 12% from October through year-end.
Despite higher borrowing costs, retail sales increased by 0.4% in December, with strong holiday season spending. While consumer spending remains robust and continues to support the economy, rising credit card balances and delinquencies suggest financial pressures may be mounting.
Conclusion
The 2024 holiday season demonstrated the resilience and adaptability of U.S. consumers. Extended promotional windows and early shopping behaviors, combined with a mix of in-store and online activity, helped drive record-breaking spending while mitigating potential economic headwinds. Additionally, the interplay between heightened consumer demand and constrained supply chain capacity highlighted the logistical challenges faced by retailers during peak shopping periods.
