Spot rates and tender rejections are unseasonably elevated. While numerous factors could contribute to these conditions, this analysis reviews longer-term trends to assess whether the current surge represents a transient winter anomaly or reflects an appreciable shift in market structure.
The total number of trucking authorities in the United States has finally reverted to the pre-COVID trendline. Following two years of explosive capacity growth and a subsequent three-year period of steady decline, the industry has re-aligned with its long-term historical growth trajectory.
Data from Carrier Details (SONAR: CDTTA.USA) shows that the total number of trucking authorities spiked dramatically starting in mid-2020. This “gold rush” was fueled by record-high spot rates and a surge in pandemic-era consumer demand. At its peak in 2022, the number of authorities soared past 375,000, significantly exceeding the steady linear growth observed between 2014 and 2019. As the chart below illustrates, however, that capacity bubble has effectively burst.
The current count has contracted to fewer than 336,000 authorities, finally intersecting with the diagonal trendline that represents the industry’s natural trajectory. This regression is a consequence of a prolonged “freight recession,” characterized by declining rates, escalating operating costs, and a market “thinning of the herd” as many pandemic-era entrants found their operations no longer economically sustainable.
It’s worth noting that the last year and a half of rebalancing occurred in tandem with a nearly 10% drop in freight demand that didn’t start to turn around until this past Thanksgiving. Consequently, the market temporarily dipped below the trendline during a period of low capacity pressure, which makes the subsequent rise in rejections even more significant. Under normal circumstances, this should have manifested as a decrease in tender rejection levels, yet for much of 2025, rejections were increasing.
A simultaneous drop in volume and an increase in rejected freight is indicative of an overcorrection in capacity. This is plausible given the likely lag between reported authority exits and the actual cessation of carrier operations, suggesting that the true number of active authorities is likely even lower than the current data indicates.
The 28-day moving average of the spread between contract and spot rates has also subtly returned to pre-COVID territory. As shown in the RATES12.USA chart, the red line representing the moving average now hovers around the -0.25 USD range, which is squarely within the spread levels observed in late 2019 and early 2020 before the pandemic-induced volatility took hold. Contract rates typically lag spot rate movements by a couple of months. This lag could imply that the conditions driving the spread closer to zero are further along than currently depicted.
Finally, a synthesis of some of the above data sets provides a third indicator of a significant market shift. Comparing the ratio of supply and demand—trucking authorities (SONAR: CDTTA.USA) divided by truckload tender volume (SONAR: STVI.USA)—to the average spot rate (SONAR: NTI.USA), and multiplying the rate by a scaling factor of 𝝀 = 12 to baseline it with the 2019 ratio, shows another convergence for the first time since 2022.
This validates the assumption that the relationship between supply and demand correlates directly with price; the recent drop in the supply-to-demand ratio aligns perfectly with the jump in spot prices.
While blanket statements about current market conditions are often educated guesses, the data suggests that the market has reached several meaningful crossroads simultaneously. Rates and rejections are resultant indicators—they are effects driven by various macro and micro market causes. While recent winter storms undoubtedly contributed to elevated prices and capacity constraints, it is essential to step back and examine the current position within long-term trends before dismissing these conditions as merely temporary.
