Most truckload transactions begin with a simple request from a shipper to a carrier or 3PL. These requests are either accepted or rejected—especially when processed electronically via EDI or API. Since transportation service providers generally prefer not to turn down business, a rejected tender is an undesirable outcome for both the shipper and the provider. In a stable sourcing environment, rejection rates should remain relatively low.
Historically, SONAR’s national Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) shows the trucking market has gone through four distinct cycles of challenging and easy sourcing conditions. In the tightest (most difficult to procure) environments, national rejection rates exceed 20%. In the loosest markets, the OTRI averages below 4%.
A healthy supply-demand balance seems to exist when rejection rates fall between 5–7%, with seasonal spikes around holidays pushing rates to 10–15%. “Healthy” implies that carriers have enough demand to support profitability and utilization, while shippers avoid prolonged service disruptions or rate inflation.
The table below provides a general guideline for interpreting OTRI values, but the direction and speed of change matter just as much as the value itself. The real power of tender data lies in its timeliness and frequency.
Relationship with rates
Tender rejections are a direct measure of carrier compliance, making them one of the most objective indicators of freight market conditions. In contrast, spot rates—the traditional supply-demand metric—are often noisier. Factors such as cost inflation, network imbalances, and differences between long- and short-haul freight can introduce misleading signals in rate data.
The relationship between rejection rates and spot rates is generally straightforward, though nuanced. Spot rates excluding estimated fuel costs (NTIL), shown in orange in the chart above, may lead or lag rejection rate trends. Certain rejection thresholds also tend to reliably signal inflationary or deflationary pressures.
For example, the national OTRI declined gradually from over 25% to around 20% in 2021 as more capacity entered the market, yet spot rates continued to rise because shippers were still competing for what they needed from a service perspective. Conversely, OTRI increased from 2.9% to 4.3% between July and September 2023 while spot rates fell, as carriers lowered prices to retain business as there was still insufficient business to support their operation.
Ultimately, the long-term trends of both data points tend to align.
Contract rates
The link between rejection rates and long-term (contract) truckload pricing is more straightforward but significantly lagged. Sustained higher rejection rates drive contract rate inflation, and the opposite is true as well. Because contract rates are typically negotiated on an annual basis, they move more slowly in response to market changes.
Rejection rates can also reflect the effectiveness of a shipper’s contracted rates. Carriers prioritize higher-paying freight when capacity is limited, so lower-priced shippers tend to face higher rejection rates, all else being equal.
Volume matters
At the market level, the sensitivity of rejection rates depends on shipment volume.
For instance, comparing OTRI values in Atlanta versus Tucson, Arizona, the smaller Tucson market appears more volatile but isn’t necessarily tighter. Understanding the size of the market is crucial when interpreting its OTRI. Recognizing seasonal patterns and how a market typically behaves relative to national trends is essential for drawing meaningful insights.
The most powerful application comes when shippers and service providers compare their own data to SONAR benchmarks. A shipper experiencing significantly higher rejection rates than the national average may be underpricing freight, operating inefficiently, or working with underperforming carriers.
Likewise, service providers with higher rejection rates than market norms may need to tighten operations, as that business is at greater risk.
Even in a soft market, tender rejection rates can help service providers identify areas with greater opportunity.
