Potential targeted tariffs could hit industry dominated by China and Vietnam
Furniture tariffs imminent?
On August 22, the Trump Administration announced a “major tariff investigation” on furniture. The investigation is expected to conclude within 50 days of that announcement, which will likely lead to new tariffs on furniture. No specific tariff rates or timeline for implementation have been proposed.
SONAR ocean data appears to over-index to furniture
SONAR ocean booking data utilizes both ocean bookings data, taken at the point of overseas origin, from a third-party vendor for some data sets, and US customs data for others. The data sets (some are container counts while others are indexes) are based on TEU volume rather than dollar value. The charts shown and described below are taken from a Maritime Trade Console, which allows users to more easily drill down into the data and is currently in SONAR QA.
Most estimates I’ve seen estimate containerized imports of furniture at about 10% of total imports and 16%-17% of imports from China. The furniture category represents 15% of the SONAR ocean booking data and 34% of the data when only containerized US imports are considered. So, the SONAR data appears to over-index to furniture, which I believe provides a comprehensive view when limiting the data to only furniture. The discussion below limits the data sets to only furniture and only US containerized maritime imports.
US furniture imports are dominated by China and Vietnam
US furniture imports by origin country. The colored bars represent the various US destination ports as expanded upon below. (Chart: SONAR Maritime Trade Console)
This drills down one level from the previous chart to show which US ports are most exposed. This confirms that the furniture exposures are roughly in line with the ports’ total market share. (Chart: SONAR Maritime Trade Console)
Potential volatility at origin ports
Whether they move furniture or not, shippers moving containers out of China and Vietnam will be interested in which ports could experience volatility as a result of potential furniture tariffs. As has been the case with US imports in general, there could be a pull-forward ahead of tariffs followed by a lull as tariffs go into effect (and potentially another surge as tariffs are watered-down or delayed). That volatility could lead to delays and congestion as demand surges and an improved negotiating position for shippers (and possible cancelled sailings) as demand pulls back.
The largest origin ports by volume of US furniture imports. (Chart: SONAR Maritime Trade Console)
Shippers and consignees most exposed to furniture tariffs
(Chart: SONAR Maritime Trade Console)
(Chart: SONAR Maritime Trade Console)
Even before the furniture tariff announcement, US furniture imports were down sharply from the only exporting countries that matter.
(Chart: SONAR Maritime Trade Console)
Ocean carriers most exposed to furniture
Mediterranean Shipping Company, Evergreen Line, CMA CGM, COSCO Container Line, and Maersk are the most exposed to US furniture imports, in that order. (Chart: SONAR Maritime Trade Console)
