The guidance increase from 8% three months ago highlights tighter capacity
This week’s SONAR Pricing Power Index (PPI): 65 (unchanged) – Just like last week, I thought the most incremental tidbit was from an earnings call; this time it was the expectation for a 17% average dry van spot rate in 2026, posted by CH Robinson, the largest truck broker. The week before, what stood out was JB Hunt’s comment that contract renewals would range from the high single to the low-double digit range. Those carriers are large enough that those comments stand as a starting point for forecasting rates for the remainder of the year, perhaps to be adjusted as new SONAR data is released. Similar to last week, the major nationwide SONAR data sets did not change much in the past seven days, and freight management comments, while bullish, were within my range of expectations. Accordingly, the PPI remains unchanged this week at 65, which indicates the freight market remains in carriers’ favor. The PPI may rise in the next few weeks as International Roadcheck (May 12-14) and Memorial Day approach.
Three-month SONAR Pricing Power Index (PPI) Outlook: 75 (unchanged) – The three-month outlook suggests that the freight market should tighten further during the next three months. Three months from now is roughly when imports start to peak (typically August or September), marking the start of a fall peak season. The comment from J.B. Hunt’s management that shippers have already started making requests for peak season capacity highlights shippers’ concern that the tightness in the freight market may intensify.
The national tender rejection rate is just under 13%
The national tender rejection rate (2026 – white line) remains far higher than the past three years. (Chart: SONAR)
The national tender rejection rate was up slightly from the prior week and stands at 12.7%. It peaked at 14.7% at the end of 1Q, which is typically a strong period of freight due to end-of-quarter shipments. The main variance in nationwide tender rejection rates in the past week came in the flatbed segment. The flatbed data set is thinner and tends to be volatile from week to week – it went from 42% last week to 46% this week, indicating that the flatbed market is very tight.
The SONAR Truckload Rejection Index is shown above for dry van (white), reefer (green), and flatbed (red) segments. (Chart: SONAR)
Spot rates remain above $3/mile
Since the start of the Iran conflict, the national average spot rate has climbed relentlessly, moving from $2.76/mile to a high of $3.10/mile. The past three weeks, spot rates declined only $0.05/mile, which likely reflects April being a relatively weak month for freight and diesel prices coming down off their highs after a dramatic 50%+ run after the start of the Iran conflict. Last year, the average spot rate in SONAR was $2.33/mile. So, if C.H. Robinson’s guidance is accurate, as it relates to SONAR, NTI.USA (SONAR’s ticker for spot rates), would average $2.73/mile for the year. That would imply that spot rates in SONAR would decline – the current rate is $3.05/mile, and the average this year has been $2.84/mile.
The average spot rate for 2026 (white), 2025 (yellow), 2024 (green), and 2023 (pink). (Chart: SONAR)
Surging diesel prices (orange line, left axis) gave carriers further impetus to demand higher spot rates (white line), but carriers were only able to do that because the freight market was already tight. (Chart: SONAR)
Accepted tender volume is roughly in line with year-ago levels, highlighting that recent freight market tightness has been primarily capacity-driven.
Total truckload tender volume, which counts both first-time tenders and loads that have been rejected and retendered, is tracking 10% above year-ago levels. Year-over-year comparisons are perhaps on the easy side since we are lapping the Liberation Day tariffs. Tender volume has largely recovered from the decline to start 1Q, highlighting that early April is seasonally weak for freight demand. Meanwhile, accepted tender volume is running roughly in line with year-ago levels. However, I believe that understates actual freight movement relative to 2025, because it excludes loads that fall through the routing guide and move on the spot market, and spot opportunities have clearly grown meaningfully. Consumer spending has been stable overall, up in some areas with inflation, balanced with cutbacks in other, more discretionary areas. Meanwhile, demand has surged in the industrial economy, which is largely related to the build-out of data centers and chemicals that use natural gas as a base feedstock.
Truckload tender volume declined to start Q2 following the end-of-1Q surge, but has largely recovered. (Chart: SONAR)
The volume of accepted tenders is running roughly in line with year-ago levels. That likely understates total freight volume because it excludes loads that fell through the routing guide and moved on the spot market. (Chart: SONAR)
About the SONAR PPI: The SONAR Pricing Power Index is a qualitative assessment of the balance of negotiating power between shippers and carriers on a scale of 0 to 100 using SONAR data and anecdotes from discussions with SONAR clients. The higher the number, the tighter the freight market and the more that pricing power favors carriers. A 50 represents a balanced market. While the SONAR PPI primarily pertains to the truckload sector, given its size, dynamics in other sectors, such as intermodal and ocean, are also considered.
